One Nation has launched its Victorian election campaign with a pledge to boost police numbers and toughen penalties for young offenders, promising to redirect billions of dollars earmarked for the Suburban Rail Loop and Victoria’s Treaty process to pay for it. The announcement puts law-and-order spending on a collision course with two of the state’s most significant — and most contested — long-term policy commitments.
What the party is promising #
At its campaign launch, One Nation said it would commit funding to recruit additional Victoria Police officers and would legislate tougher penalties for young offenders, framing the policy as a response to community concern about youth crime. The party said the measures would be paid for by scrapping the Suburban Rail Loop, the state’s multi-decade, multi-billion-dollar rail project, and by discontinuing Victoria’s Treaty negotiation process with First Peoples.
Specific detail on how many additional officers would be funded, the proposed sentencing changes, and the modelling behind the costings was not fully outlined at the launch. VCN has sought further detail from the party on the budget figures underpinning the pledge.
Why the Suburban Rail Loop is back in the firing line #
The Suburban Rail Loop has repeatedly become a flashpoint in Victorian political debate because of its scale and cost. The project, which the state government says will eventually link Melbourne’s middle and outer suburbs via an orbital rail line, has had its budget and timeline revised multiple times since it was first announced, and remains a recurring target for opposition parties seeking savings to fund alternative priorities.
One Nation is not the first party to propose redirecting Suburban Rail Loop funding toward other services; however, using it specifically to fund a police and sentencing package is a new framing for the project’s ongoing political life. Whether such a reallocation is actually feasible depends on the project’s existing contractual commitments, many of which are already locked in through long-term construction and financing agreements reported publicly by the state government and Treasury.
Treaty process targeted for defunding #
Victoria’s Treaty process, overseen by the First Peoples’ Assembly of Victoria, has been underway for several years and is intended to establish a framework for formal agreement-making between the state and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. One Nation’s policy would end state funding for that process entirely.
The Treaty process has previously attracted criticism from some minor parties and commentators, while also drawing strong public support from Aboriginal community organisations and successive state governments, which have continued to fund the Assembly’s work through the budget cycle. Any move to defund it would likely require legislative change and would be expected to draw significant public debate, given the process’s standing as a formal, government-recognised negotiation framework.
The youth sentencing push #
Youth crime and sentencing reform has been a recurring theme in Victorian law-and-order debate for several years, with youth crime statistics, bail laws and sentencing options for young offenders regularly discussed by police, the Victorian government and opposition parties following high-profile incidents reported in the media.
One Nation’s platform calls for increased penalties for young offenders, though the party did not detail at the launch which offences, age brackets or sentencing mechanisms would be affected. Victoria’s youth justice system operates under the Children, Youth and Families Act 2005, which governs how matters involving young people are handled in the Children’s Court, including strict rules around the identification of children involved in proceedings. Any changes to penalties for young offenders would need to pass through State Parliament and would be subject to the usual scrutiny applied to criminal law reform, including advice from the Sentencing Advisory Council and consultation with the legal sector.
What police numbers pledges usually involve #
Pledges to boost police numbers are a familiar feature of Victorian election campaigns, with major parties and minor parties alike regularly promising additional recruits, new stations or expanded specialist units. Victoria Police’s actual recruitment targets and funding are set through the state budget process and negotiated between the Chief Commissioner’s office and the government of the day, meaning opposition and minor party commitments on policing numbers are promises contingent on winning government or securing budget support in Parliament.
VCN has not seen costed modelling from One Nation detailing how many additional officers its policy would fund, over what timeframe, or whether the pledge accounts for existing police recruitment and retention programs already underway. We have asked the party for further detail and will update this report if it is provided.
A pattern across minor-party campaigns #
Linking law-and-order spending to the scrapping of major infrastructure or reconciliation projects is a familiar campaign tactic for minor parties seeking to distinguish themselves from the major parties on both cost and ideology. It allows a party to present a headline pledge — more police, tougher penalties — alongside a simple funding explanation, without requiring detailed costing against the existing state budget.
Independent budget analysis of such pledges, including from the Parliamentary Budget Office, typically examines whether proposed savings are actually available to be redirected, given existing contracts, legislative obligations and ongoing program costs. VCN will continue to track whether other parties or independent bodies respond with their own costings of the One Nation package as the campaign progresses.
What happens next #
As with all election commitments, One Nation’s policy would require the party to win sufficient seats, or exert balance-of-power influence, to have any prospect of being implemented. Changes to sentencing law would need to pass both houses of the Victorian Parliament, while ending Treaty funding or redirecting Suburban Rail Loop money would likely involve budget appropriations and, potentially, renegotiation of existing contracts.
VCN will continue to report on costed policy detail as it is released by all parties in the lead-up to the Victorian election, and will seek comment from the state government, Victoria Police and the First Peoples’ Assembly of Victoria on the implications of the policy as announced.
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