Premier Ben Carroll has announced a pre-election pledge to build 25,000 new homes earmarked for first-time buyers, with sites proposed across Melbourne’s growth corridors and the regional centres of Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Latrobe. The announcement, framed by the Premier as a plan for “prosperity and security”, lands as housing affordability remains one of the most contentious issues facing Victorian voters heading into the next poll.
What has been announced #
According to the government’s announcement, the 25,000-home program would be delivered in partnership with the private sector and community housing providers, with a mix of land releases and higher-density builds in established suburbs. Mr Carroll said in a statement that the homes would be specifically targeted at first-home buyers who have been locked out of the market by rising prices and tight lending conditions.
The government has not yet released a full breakdown of how many homes would be allocated to each region, and Victoria Crime News understands further detail — including pricing caps, eligibility criteria and construction timelines — is expected to be released in coming weeks. We have approached the Department of Transport and Planning for the underlying project documentation and will update this article when that material becomes available.
Why regional centres are in the mix #
For readers outside Melbourne, the inclusion of Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Latrobe is notable. All four centres have experienced steady population growth over the past decade as people priced out of Melbourne look further afield, and all four have local councils that have previously flagged concerns about housing supply failing to keep pace with demand.
Latrobe’s inclusion is particularly significant for the Gippsland region, which has spent years navigating the economic aftermath of coal-fired power station closures. Local business groups in the Latrobe Valley have repeatedly called for state investment that creates both housing stock and construction-sector jobs, arguing the two issues are linked.
In Bendigo and Ballarat, population growth forecasts released by regional development bodies in recent years have pointed to housing undersupply as a structural issue rather than a temporary spike, driven by a combination of internal migration from Melbourne and overseas arrivals settling directly in regional hubs.
The affordability backdrop #
Victoria’s housing affordability pressures have been well documented. Median house prices in regional centres such as Geelong and Ballarat have risen sharply over the past five years, even as wages growth has lagged. First-home buyer groups have long argued that supply-side interventions — building more homes, rather than simply offering grants or stamp duty concessions to buyers — are necessary to meaningfully shift the market.
The Carroll government’s announcement appears to lean into that argument, positioning the 25,000-home pledge as a supply measure rather than a demand-side subsidy. Whether that distinction holds up in practice will depend heavily on delivery — a point not lost on housing policy analysts, who have previously noted that past state housing targets in Victoria have had mixed records of being met in full and on schedule.
Political context #
The timing of the announcement, ahead of the next state election, is unlikely to be coincidental. Housing affordability has consistently polled as a top-tier concern for Victorian voters, particularly among younger Victorians and those in outer-metropolitan and regional seats where the government and opposition are expected to contest closely.
The state opposition has not yet released a detailed costed response to the 25,000-home pledge. VCN understands housing policy will be a central battleground issue in the lead-up to the poll, with both major parties expected to release further housing announcements in coming months. We will report on the opposition’s response, and any independent costings, as they are made public.
What first-home buyers actually get #
For Victorians trying to work out what this means for them, the practical details matter more than the headline figure. Past state and federal first-home buyer schemes have varied significantly in their design — some have offered shared-equity arrangements where the government retains a stake in the property, others have relied on guarantor schemes that reduce the deposit required, and others still have simply released government-owned land for sale at below-market rates.
The government’s statement does not yet specify which of these models — or what combination of them — would apply to the 25,000 homes. Victoria Crime News will seek clarification from the Department of Treasury and Finance on financing arrangements, including whether the scheme involves direct government construction, incentives to private developers, or a combination of both.
- Whether eligibility will be means-tested, and at what income threshold
- Whether homes will be sold at market rate, below market rate, or via shared equity
- Construction timelines for each of the five regions named
- Whether existing planning approvals already cover the proposed sites, or whether new rezoning will be required
Until those answers are provided, residents in Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Latrobe — and prospective buyers more broadly — are left with a broad commitment rather than a fully costed project plan.
What happens next #
The government has indicated further detail will be released in the coming weeks, including site-specific information for each of the five regions. Local councils in the affected areas are expected to be consulted on planning and infrastructure requirements, particularly around roads, schools and water and sewerage capacity — all of which have historically been pinch points when large-scale housing development is proposed in growth areas.
Victoria Crime News will continue to follow this story as further detail is released, including any response from the state opposition, local government bodies and housing advocacy groups. Readers in the Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Latrobe areas who want to raise questions about how the scheme might affect their local area are encouraged to contact their local council or state member directly, as consultation processes are expected to open once detailed site plans are confirmed.
This is a developing policy story. Victoria Crime News will update this article as further detail on the 25,000-home program, including funding sources, eligibility criteria and site-specific timelines, is made public by the Victorian Government.
